Whether Domestic Market Or International Market, Cotton Has Greater Suppression.

The short-term influence factors can be solved as time goes by, and the medium term influence factors seem to have higher certainty at present.

In addition, we also see that although there are big problems in pportation, because the futures market is more obvious, the positivity of the hedging is relatively high, and the futures warehouse receipts have been gradually increased, which has also formed a marked suppression of the market.

The market expects that pport problems will be eased in December and import pressure will increase. Cotton will face downward pressure during this period.

Textile enterprises need more replenishment, supporting the spot market.

In September, a large number of national cotton stores were replenish to cope with the current market.

On the domestic side, in March, the state must throw away its reserves and protect the State Reserve in advance.

The number of public inspection is, therefore, at present, the quantity of reserve cotton can be guaranteed next year, and there will be no shortage of reserve cotton this year.

Because the amount of monthly cotton reserves will be large enough to meet the market demand, the new cotton will be sold in March.

That is to say, the sales period left to the market is only 3 months, and the corresponding number of new cotton is about 3 million tons, and there are hundreds of thousands of tons of imported cotton and the national cotton stored on the market.

According to the calculation, with the demand of 650 thousand tons per month, there will be about 2 million 700 thousand tons of cotton left at the end of February.

In fact, when the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is widened to around 2000 yuan / ton, and the outer yarns are cheaper than the inner ones, the imported yarn will reoccupy the market. The demand will shrink, and the surplus will be even larger in the later stage.

In the international market, the main cotton producing countries have achieved relatively high yields this year. The area has been steadily rising, the output has increased obviously, and the consumption growth is relatively slow.

Because the Chinese government is determined.

Control of imports, so China's inventory decline is more obvious, but the international market is such a big buyer of China, inventory has accumulated.

Specifically, China's inventory has decreased by 2 million 202 thousand tons, and global stockpiles have decreased by 1 million 876 thousand tons, with an increase of 326 thousand tons in addition to China's stock.

The global production demand gap is 1 million 875 thousand tons in the current quarter. It is a 2 year gap between production and demand, resulting in a total decrease of 5 million 83 thousand tons in the end of the world, of which China has accumulated 4 million 104 thousand tons.

From this point of view, the global cotton supply and demand balance sheet is slowly being repaired, mainly due to the decline in production and the slow recovery of consumption.

However, in different regions, China and the international market are obviously divided.

Because of the small accumulation of international market stock and limited export this year, the pressure in the international market is relatively large.

Therefore, I believe that by March next year, both China's ginning mills and traders, or sellers in the international market, will have greater sales pressure and need to sell cotton as far as possible so as to avoid competing with the world's most competitive Chinese national cotton stores.

As China's imports have quotas at the end of the year, the support for late exports will be significantly reduced.

In India, because of the currency reform, the new flower listing rate is slow.