The 2 Quarter Report 2014: Chemical Fiber Is Not Booming In The Peak Season.

< p > < < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > textile manufacturing > /a >, we believe that the slow recovery of Europe and America, and the continuous upgrading of product quality by enterprises, the problem of printing and dyeing leading enterprises to achieve more than 10% of sustained growth is not big.

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< p > although the consumption of spun clothing is bottoming out in 2013, the road to recovery may be longer than exports.

The development mode of epitaxial expansion and superposition marketing is over, and the fine management mode is coming. The development of enterprises will be pferred from channel and marketing to the origin of the product brand, and the pformation will be long and painful.

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< p > 2014 < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > > textile raw materials < /a > demand will continue to rise, and the price of chemical fiber is still expected to rebound slightly.

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< p > manufacturing links are mainly: < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > printing and dyeing > /a > capacity is relatively obvious. Leading companies such as Lu Tai will continue to benefit, and the performance of textile and clothing enterprises will be increasingly divided. In the past, textile and clothing consuming enterprises which rely on modified profit and loss tables and rely on extension to expand will face greater adjustment pressure.

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< p > good for the first half of the year. The second half may be better than the first half.

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< p > spinning and clothing consumption pformation is long and painful. In the second half of this year, there may be a rebound in low base orders.

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< p > despite the slow growth of exports, the performance of textile and garment manufacturing enterprises is likely to show a low growth rate because of the lack of improvement in domestic sales in the first half of the year and the increase in comprehensive costs. The growth rate has declined compared with the same period in 13 years.

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"P >" in March, the price of chemical fiber was reduced in the peak season. We think the price rise in the second half of the year is more likely.

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< p > we expect no surprises for a quarterly consumer, whether it's consumer or manufacturing.

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< p > Investment Strategy: still adhere to the same view of the whole year, and continue to focus on manufacturing leading enterprises. The market has made relatively full response to the decline in the performance of the textile and clothing consumption, with proper attention to the high-quality brand enterprises that adjusted the strategy earlier and focused on the products.

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< p > printing and dyeing industry has relatively obvious integration effect. It is suggested that Lu Tai and Huafu color spinning be recommended.

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< p > short and medium term, after a sharp decline, the future consumer enterprises may rebound.

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In the medium and long term, P instead of channel and marketing become the core of enterprises, and the pformation potential is inevitable.

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< p > investment target: we propose to pay attention to Taihe new material, Semir, Lu Tai, fuanna, good news birds and other stocks, and seven leading wolves, nine herding kings, AOKANG, and Smith Barney are also rebounding opportunities.

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< p > < strong > Market Review < /strong > < /p >

< p > the apparel sector increased by 2.96% in the 1 quarter, while the textile and chemical fiber sector rose by 5.57% and 6.88% respectively; in March, the plate rose by 2.25%, 2.01% and 6.70% respectively.

In the list of rising and falling prices, the stocks that had increased more frequently in the earlier stage were all lowered.

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< p > < strong > risk warning < /strong > < /p >

< p > we judge that the bottom of the industry is 13 years of consumption, but the arrival of the bottom does not mean that the recovery will come. Coupled with the division of enterprises and the uncertain future, the market may overestimate the intensity of consumption recovery.

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< p > capital market may underestimate the difficulty and process of changing the profit model of the industry.

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< p > the balance sheet and cash flow statement of textile and apparel retail enterprises are still not good.

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