Influenced By Many Factors, Textile Manufacturing Is Still Not Optimistic In The Second Half Of The Year.

From the perspective of industrial characteristics, China Textile industry The proportion of industrial output and profit in manufacturing and national economy will gradually decrease. The rise in manufacturing costs caused by the development of the country is hard to reverse. From the perspective of the whole industry, the decline of the textile industry in the long and medium term will inevitably be inevitable. In the short term, the main factors that affect the textile industry are export and raw material prices. Exports are difficult to rise rapidly in the second half of the year, as well as domestic and foreign prices of cotton prices for enterprises. profit Phagocytosis, the overall situation of the textile industry is not optimistic.

Clothing retail sales in 2011 amounted to 795 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year, which is basically the same as the growth rate in 2010. The growth rate of textile and apparel listed companies is slower than that of the national garment retail sales. The situation is still grim this year, and the data at the beginning of the year have been confirmed. At present, the growth rate of monthly clothing consumption is picking up. With the long-term economic situation turning better, clothing consumption can still be expected. But in the short term, the national consumption promotion policy does not include a large-scale, clear and direct policy for the clothing industry.

Textile manufacturing is still not optimistic in the second half of the year

Since the beginning of last year, the price of cotton raw materials has fluctuated greatly. After a short period of time, it has been plunging sharply, and has entered a long and slow decline since the second half of last year. Since the beginning of this year, the international cotton prices have basically remained stable, while domestic cotton prices have dropped considerably in the past month. Cotton prices will directly affect the number of orders and the profits of domestic enterprises.

Textile enterprises have a relatively high degree of dependence on exports, which is obviously affected by the international economy. During the 09 financial crisis, exports of primary textiles and clothing and clothing accessories were all exported. Substantially reduced The cumulative year-on-year were -15% and -10% respectively. Overall, the growth rate of primary textile exports fluctuated greatly, while the export volume of clothing and accessories increased faster.

Entering the "ice age", the overall situation of China's textile exports will decline and even shrink over a long period of time, and competition in the industry will become more intense.

In the short term, the export of the two main export sites of the textile industry is basically stable, and the situation of exporting to the United States is relatively stable and is now picking up faster. However, due to the impact of global economic turmoil, textile orders still need time to pick up. The export situation in the second half of this year is still not optimistic.

In the medium to long term, the decline of the textile industry as a whole will be inevitable in the future. This is mainly due to the fact that the rise in manufacturing costs caused by the development of the country is hard to reverse. In the short term, the main factors affecting the operation of the textile industry are raw material prices and export situation. The instability of the international economic situation makes enterprises less orders, while the price of cotton is higher than that of foreign cotton. The textile industry is likely to linger at the bottom in the second half of the year.

　　 Clothing home textiles are affected by many factors.

Throughout the past 20 years, the total retail sales of social consumer goods and economic growth have a certain synchronization in most of the time. The period of asynchrony is mainly caused by the CPI's large fluctuations. At the same time, there is a certain inverse relationship between the total retail sales of social consumer goods and inflation, and there is a certain lag.

Compared to the textile manufacturing industry, clothing home textile enterprises still have high gross profit. In 2011, the gross domestic product rate of apparel home textile industry was 34.36%, 18.19 percentage points higher than that of textile manufacturing industry 16.17%. In terms of revenue growth and net profit growth, over the past three years, two sub sectors have been relatively close, and the relative advantages of apparel home textiles have disappeared.

Although the industry has fluctuated in the past few years in terms of revenue and profit growth, most of the listed companies' income growth has maintained a steady and rapid increase. The relatively high growth in the operating income of apparel textile enterprises is closely related to the channel expansion of brand enterprises. Most enterprises, especially those listed after 09 years, have carried out large-scale channel expansion after raising funds. The increase of income growth is mainly caused by channel distribution except for the growth of single store income. Of course, the expansion of the channel is due to the high level of the growth of the clothing consumption of the residents, and the number of outlets is far from the bottleneck.

As an alternative consumer goods, clothing home textiles are obviously affected by residents' consumption. There are many factors that affect residents' consumption, such as national income, savings level, inflation, income distribution and social security system. In the second half of this year, the growth rate of the national economy is still likely to be bottoming up, and inflation is downward. The pressure brought by inventory on the industry will cause the growth rate of the industry to be suppressed, and the growth rate in the second half of this year will slow down.

Short term concern for balanced development companies

Clothing retail sales in 2011 amounted to 795 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year, which is basically the same as the growth rate in 2010. The growth rate of textile and apparel listed companies is slower than that of the national garment retail sales. The situation is still grim this year, and the data at the beginning of the year have been confirmed. With the long-term economic situation improving, clothing consumption can still be expected. But in the short term, the national consumption promotion policy does not include a large-scale, clear and direct policy for the clothing industry.

At the macro level, apparel home textile companies are faced with a decline in household consumption intention and a slowdown in consumption growth. At the micro level, inventory has become a burden after the past few years, especially last year's massive expansion and wide range price increase. What is needed is strong enterprise management capability and contingency mechanism.

In the increasingly fierce market competition, when consumers' demand for brand and quality is more and more intense, enterprises are experiencing the stage from channel management to brand management. In the future, promotion can no longer be improved by opening shop expansion, but it should be transformed into brand competitiveness mainly based on design and research, advertising and information management.