Can Xinjiang Afford The Weight Of China'S Cotton?
Xinjiang occupies a pivotal position in China's cotton industry. Faced with the unusual fluctuation of cotton market this year, we can not help asking: who will benefit from the cotton price?
Xinjiang's cotton industry is stabilizing domestic
Cotton market
For this reason, the reporter interviewed Zhang Wenmin, senior analyst of cotton futures in Zhengzhou commodity exchange and director of cotton research and development center of Wanda Futures Company.
Can Xinjiang afford the weight of China's cotton?
This year, China's cotton industry has experienced a special year of cotton production and cotton prices soaring.
In the face of the tight supply of cotton resulting from the rapid development of the textile industry, the cotton industry has always been debated whether to "fill in" or "make up the deficiency".
Xinjiang cotton is a symbol of high quality cotton in China. Xinjiang cotton industry occupies a pivotal position in China's cotton industry chain.
So in the future development strategy of China's cotton industry, can Xinjiang play a greater role? For this reason, the reporter interviewed Zhang Wenmin, senior analyst of cotton futures in Zhengzhou commodity exchange and Xinjiang director of cotton research and development center of Wanda Futures Company for a long time.
Zhang Wenmin believes that the continuous rise of cotton prices in the international and domestic markets in the 2010 cotton year has made Xinjiang's cotton industry and cotton growers the biggest regional beneficiaries, and the cotton industry has achieved the best operating results in history.
In 2010, the output of cotton in Xinjiang was 2 million 600 thousand tons, accounting for 40% of the total 6 million 300 thousand tons in the country and 11% of the world's 25 million 100 thousand tons. Cotton income accounted for 60% of the per capita income of Xinjiang farmers. According to the average price of 26000~30000 yuan per ton, the cotton direct output value of Xinjiang reached 60 billion yuan to 70 billion yuan, a historical record. The comprehensive income of cotton growers in Xinjiang increased by 50% to 80%, but this must be realized through hedging of futures market.
Zhang Wenmin said that in the next 2010~2015 years, China will be a net importer of cotton.
Imported cotton
Supplementary consumption gap.
He calculated such an account for us: according to the balance of the balance of cotton production and marketing, the annual output of cotton in China was 7 million to 9 million tons in 2011~2015 years. With the annual growth of domestic consumption and textile exports, the average annual cotton supply and demand gap was 4 million ~500 million tons.
Therefore, the state must attach importance to the safety of the cotton industry.
In the face of the problem of "taking production to fill the vacancy" or "filling in the deficiency", he thinks cotton production and marketing self balance is more active. Therefore, Xinjiang must become the key cotton growing area in China to make up for the growing demand and supply gap of cotton.
The average yield of cotton in Xinjiang is 128 kilograms, and the Corps is 150 kilograms, which is much higher than the average output of 87 kilograms per mu in the whole country.
In most cotton producing areas in China, the planting area has been decreasing year after year, and the comparative benefit of cotton planting is lower than that of other agricultural products.
Supply and demand of cotton
The task of the shortfall will be mainly borne by Xinjiang.
Zhang Wenmin, who has been engaged in cotton futures research for many years, knows well about the development of Xinjiang's cotton industry.
He said that Xinjiang is China and the world's best quality hand picked cotton, long staple cotton, medium and long staple cotton, colored cotton, ecological cotton production area.
After more than ten years of continuous development, Xinjiang's cotton industry has become one of the pillar industries of Xinjiang's national economic development.
Xinjiang has unique conditions to develop cotton industry.
Xinjiang has an area of 1 million 660 thousand square kilometers, with only 24 million 60 thousand mu in the more than 100 million mu arable land.
Xinjiang's cotton industry now has tens of billions of fixed assets and current assets. It has built three level cotton production, scientific research and operation industrial system of local and corps.
In recent years, the implementation of Xinjiang's high quality cotton base construction project and the high-density drip irrigation precision planting technology have brought a revolution to Xinjiang's cotton industry.
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It is understood that there were 593 cotton ginning plants in Xinjiang in the year of 2009~2010, and 2 million 460 thousand tons of large cotton covered by public inspection instruments, accounting for 50% and 71% of the national total respectively.
Zhang Wenmin optimistically predicts that after 2010, the number of large cotton bales will be maintained at more than 2 million 300 thousand tons in Xinjiang, and the proportion will exceed 95%, which will provide enough high-quality supply for cotton futures business.
In 2011~2015 years, the annual output of cotton in Xinjiang is 2 million 600 thousand to 3 million tons, and the direct output value is 60 billion to 70 billion yuan.
However, it is worth noting that the government of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will organize the implementation of the national and Xinjiang cotton industry long-term development outline, the establishment of a national cotton industry overall planning system, the establishment of the national and Xinjiang level cotton reserves, cotton imports of cotton resources base and independent management channels, ease the pportation difficulties of Xinjiang cotton and so on.
Whether these work can be effectively implemented is the key to the role of Xinjiang cotton.
During the "12th Five-Year" period, Xinjiang will further optimize the industrial structure of agriculture, and jointly with the mainland cotton logistics companies and large and medium-sized textile enterprises, the Xinjiang cotton business will be exposed to the cotton trading market in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and other provinces, forming Xinjiang cotton in the Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Sichuan and other cotton main sales provinces and cities warehousing, pportation and sales network.
In addition, the comprehensive operation of cotton spot, futures and matching will also promote the efficient and stable development of Xinjiang's cotton industry.
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