Futures Daily: PTA Is Not Solid At The Bottom.

This spring, just downstream. Textiles and garments When the traditional demand season is approaching, PTA futures unexpectedly appear on the top of the stage. The 1009 contract began to decline in waves after climbing to 8736 in April 6th, and began to accelerate at the end of April. In May, it fell sharply, down from June 8th to 7062. In just two months, the price dropped 1674 points, or nearly 20%. According to tradition, 6-8 months should be the off-season demand for downstream textile and clothing. From a common sense, the weakness of PTA will be even more difficult to improve. But at this point, PTA unexpectedly rebounded, and the 1009 contract reached the highest level in June 21st to 7546 points, with a rebound of nearly 500 points. This year's PTA market has made many people in the industry wonder. Is the market really volatile? It's against the fundamentals. In fact, the development of PTA market is not strange. In view of many factors, the track of PTA coincides with the changes of fundamentals.

On the whole, the demand for downstream textile and clothing is strong. Although spring sales in spring are affected by spring sales (this is one of the pressure sources of spring quotes), downstream demand is still in a relatively ideal state, especially in the downstream weaving stage of polyester. Recently, the start-up load has increased slightly, and it is understood that the stock of downstream yarns is not abundant. In addition, the export situation of polyester products has also improved unexpectedly. In the 3-5 months of this year, the export of polyester products continued to increase rapidly, which exceeded the level before the financial crisis, and reached a record high in 4-5. The export volume of polyester products was 250 thousand tons per month, accounting for nearly 15% of the polyester output. Therefore, the obvious improvement of the export situation of polyester products is one of the support for the improvement of downstream demand.

although Downstream demand Remain in a relatively ideal state, but negative factors still prevail. Since the second half of last year, PTA production load has remained at 90% and above, and imports have not declined. Therefore, although the surplus is not obvious, we can see a lot from the volume of warehouse receipts in the futures market. The amount of warehouse receipts increased from October last year, reaching third highs in May this year.

Despite the recent decrease in warehouse receipts, the total is still up to 38 thousand (5 tons / ton, a total of 190 thousand tons). In addition, the exchange stipulates that after September delivery will be centralized cancellation. This means that nearly 200 thousand tons of goods should be concentrated on the spot market in the middle of September, which should not be overlooked.

Because PTA Production profit is still relatively ideal, generally maintained at 1000 yuan / ton or above level, so PTA manufacturers have higher production enthusiasm, the operation load will remain at 90% and above level. In addition, the import volume of PTA remains at a high level, and the overall space of import deficit is decreasing, so imports will not shrink significantly. Because of this, there is little possibility of falling supply.

Another important factor in the PTA market is cost collapse. The direct raw material PX of PTA will supply more pressure this year. Since the launch of a number of new PX installations in Asia last year, the relationship between supply and demand has changed significantly. At present, the production profit of PX can only be maintained under the profit and loss balance line, and PX itself has no upward force due to oversupply, its price can only be driven by the ups and downs of upstream.

To sum up, the bearish factor is far greater than the support of downstream demand, resulting in an early end of the PTA market in spring, and a drop in the market driven by the drop in crude oil and downstream petrochemical aromatics products.